Vietnam’s stock market shifts to a profit race

After a period dominated by news of the conflict in the Middle East and rising oil prices, Vietnam’s stock market is entering a phase driven more by corporate profit growth and domestic macro factors.

The outlook for the real estate sector is improving. Photo: Hoang Anh

In its May strategy report released earlier this month, Mirae Asset Securities Joint Stock Company argued that the outlook for corporate profits, the market-upgrade story and expectations of economic growth continue to be the main drivers supporting the VN-Index in the coming period.

According to Mirae Asset, the market in April recovered strongly and returned to its old peak zone amid the cooling of the Middle East conflict.

Cash flow is tending to concentrate on enterprises with solid fundamentals, still-attractive valuations and clear profit-growth prospects.

As of 29/4, most enterprises listed on HOSE had announced their first-quarter business results, with profit growth of about 50% year-on-year. Meanwhile, Mirae Asset kept unchanged its forecast of 20% profit growth for listed enterprises in 2026.

One of the biggest stories of the market this year continues to be the upgrade. FTSE Russell has confirmed the roadmap to upgrade Vietnam from a frontier market to a secondary emerging market, with the allocation of Vietnamese stocks into the official index baskets starting from 21/9/2026.

According to Mirae Asset’s assessment, the upgrade not only supports liquidity but also opens up the opportunity for a market re-rating, especially for the financial and securities stock group.

In April, the real estate group was the biggest driver pulling the VN-Index higher. Vingroup (VIC) and Vinhomes (VHM) alone contributed 129 points and 27 points respectively out of the index’s total gain of 179.6 points, thanks to positive first-quarter business results together with strong growth plans in 2026.

According to the plans announced by the enterprises at their general meetings of shareholders, the after-tax profit of VIC and VHM this year is expected to rise 216% and 38% respectively year-on-year.

Mirae Asset argued that the outlook for the real estate sector is improving, especially residential real estate thanks to the untangling of legal bottlenecks, and industrial-park real estate, which continues to benefit from the supply-chain relocation trend, FDI flows and the process of improving connectivity infrastructure.

The banking group is still seen as a growth pillar of the market, even though the credit growth target for 2026 is expected to fall to about 15%, lower than the more than 19% of 2025.

Notably, the report emphasized that the move by banks to agree to cut interest rates after the 9/4 meeting with the new Governor of the State Bank of Vietnam helped improve market sentiment over the past month.

In the securities group, most securities companies are planning to raise capital and are targeting profit growth of over 20% this year, expecting to benefit directly from the market upgrade and improved liquidity.

Meanwhile, the materials and construction group benefits from the ‘infrastructure super-cycle,’ with a medium-term public investment plan for the 2026–2030 period of up to VND8.22 quadrillion, up 158% from the previous period.

The recovery of the real estate market together with the wave of infrastructure investment is expected to create a significant advantage for enterprises that own large-scale operations and complete production chains. Hoa Phat, the largest steel enterprise on the market, is targeting after-tax profit growth of 41.8% in 2026.

In the technology sector, Mirae Asset argued that the trend of investing in AI, data centers and national digital transformation will continue to create growth room for information technology enterprises for many years to come.

Enterprises with core technology capabilities such as FPT and CMG are expected to benefit directly from this trend. The two enterprises also set revenue growth plans this year higher than last year, at about 15.8% and 20% respectively year-on-year.

Although maintaining a positive view on the medium-term outlook, this securities firm also noted that the risk of short-term volatility is increasing as the market’s valuation level has returned to its 10-year average.

However, Mirae Asset argued that the market is still considerably safer than during the 2021 peak period, as the market-wide margin-loan-to-equity ratio at the end of Q1/2026 was about 98%, much lower than the 129% peak recorded at the end of 2021.

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!Banking industry profits: When the ‘halo’ is not shared equally by all "Banking industry profits: When the ‘halo’ is not shared equally by all")

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Source: TheLeader — theleader.vn. The article is republished for the purpose of sharing knowledge with the community of founders and investors in the HCM VIF ecosystem.