Seeking 'Alpha': Solving the Puzzle of a Record-High VN-Index While Investors Still Lose

According to experts, investors need to focus on business quality, cash-flow generation and intrinsic value instead of merely chasing the movement of the index.

Although the VN-Index has twice touched the 1,900–1,920-point zone in 2026, surpassing its previous historical peak, quite a few investors have not felt returns commensurate with the index’s movement.

The gap between the VN-Index’s gains and the actual performance of individual investment portfolios is becoming one of the most closely watched issues in the market today. The “tough” question now is: When the index keeps hitting record highs, where do the opportunities to find stocks that generate outperformance (Alpha) lie?

Positive long-term market but still cautious sentiment

At the recent Vietnam Investment Forum 2026 – Summer Summit, experts agreed that this paradox clearly reflects the market’s increasingly strong differentiation. Cash flow is concentrating in a few large-cap stock groups, while many individual portfolios have not yet benefited.

According to experts, investors need to focus on quality, cash-flow generation and the intrinsic value of businesses. Photo: HT

According to a survey by the organizers, 74% of investors said they still plan to continue investing in stocks over the next 6–12 months. This shows that long-term confidence in the market is still maintained.

However, short-term expectations are more reserved. About 50% of investors believe the market will move sideways, while only 35% expect the uptrend to continue.

On that basis, Le Duc Khanh, Director of Analysis at VPS Securities, assessed that the market’s long-term trend remains positive. In his view, both the U.S. and Vietnamese markets share the characteristic that, after each phase of a strong rise, correction and accumulation, the index tends to form a higher base.

In 2026, the VN-Index has twice tested the 1,900–1,920-point zone, surpassing its multi-year historical peak. However, Khanh believes the market may need a few more months of accumulation to absorb factors such as geopolitics, interest rates, domestic economic developments and investor sentiment.

“The current low liquidity reflects the caution of the cash flow. Investors are still waiting for clearer signals,” Khanh said.

Sharing this view, Tran Thang Long, Deputy General Director of BIDV Securities (BSC), said the survey results reflect the market’s state of balance. Although the long-term outlook is positive, the international environment still has many uncertainties.

According to Long, in the current period, investors should maintain a reasonable stock allocation to avoid risk while the market has not yet established a new trend.

Meanwhile, Nguyen Minh Hanh, Director of the Analysis Center at Saigon–Hanoi Securities (SHS), pointed out the biggest paradox today: “The index rises but many investors have no profit.”

According to Hanh, the cause lies in strong differentiation. The VN-Index has risen mainly thanks to large-cap stocks, while many individual stocks have moved sideways or declined.

Finding “Alpha” – the answer to the differentiation problem

From the paradox above, experts argue that the key challenge for investors today is not only to choose growth sectors but to find the right businesses capable of outperforming the market.

Le Duc Khanh argues that the appropriate strategy is to combine top-down analysis with bottom-up business analysis.

Investors need to identify sectors with prospects, but more importantly, to select the best businesses in each field instead of buying based on the general story of the whole industry.

Besides the groups currently in focus such as banking, securities, steel, construction materials, infrastructure construction, retail and real estate, Khanh also highly rates some groups benefiting from the economic cycle such as textiles, fertilizer and oil and gas.

In addition, there are businesses with valuable assets but which are undervalued by the market or maintain a stable dividend policy.

According to Khanh, a common limitation of individual investors is that they often only track familiar stocks, while not devoting enough time to researching less-noticed opportunities.

Nguyen Minh Hanh points out the biggest paradox today: “The index rises but many investors have no profit.”

Offering a frank perspective, Nguyen Minh Hanh added that not every growth story equates to profit on the stock.

Taking the construction and public-investment group as an example, Hanh argued that, although it is expected to benefit from the wave of infrastructure disbursement, many businesses still face great pressure from financial leverage, interest rates and rising raw-material costs.

Conversely, the SHS expert takes a more positive view of the capital-market sector, including banks, securities firms and fintech (financial technology). In his view, the room to expand investment products over the next five years is still very large, as traditional credit is already high, at around 145% of GDP.

“The race in the coming period will lie not only in credit growth but also in the ability to expand the ecosystem of investment products,” Hanh remarked.

From a portfolio-management perspective, Tran Thang Long argued that the ability to generate Alpha is the decisive factor that sets professional investors apart from the rest.

In his view, for individual investors, consistently beating the market is very difficult. Therefore, a reasonable strategy is to allocate most of the portfolio to ETFs (exchange-traded funds) to benefit from the general trend, while devoting a small portion to stocks the investor understands deeply.

Technology and the challenge of raising market quality

Another notable issue raised by the experts is the gap in technology stocks on the Vietnamese market.

While major markets are being driven by trends such as artificial intelligence (AI), semiconductor chips and data infrastructure, Vietnam currently still mainly plays the role of a technology-application market.

Le Duc Khanh affirms that the market is trending upward over the long term.

Le Duc Khanh argues that an important solution is to promote high-quality IPOs (initial public offerings) to add large businesses and create more choices for investors.

In his view, many promising businesses have prepared plans to list, but they need a more favorable listing environment, a more complete trading system and a clearer legal corridor.

Nguyen Minh Hanh sees the big challenge for Vietnamese technology businesses as the lack of core technology.

Many companies still rely on existing technology platforms such as APIs (application programming interfaces) or large AI models developed abroad, which limits their ability to create long-term competitive advantage.

In addition, long-term capital in Vietnam is not yet large enough for technology businesses to invest heavily over many years like global corporations.

On the outlook for the second half of the year, experts argue that investors need to focus more on actual business results rather than relying only on macro indicators, which tend to lag.

The retail group is assessed positively thanks to a stable operating foundation, while banks continue to play a leading role thanks to large market capitalization and expectations of 14–17% profit growth. In addition, some sectors such as seaports, rubber and corporate bonds are also seen as having their own opportunities.

In a context where the market is unlikely to rise strongly in the short term, fixed-income assets may be a choice to help balance the portfolio.

Overall, the current period reflects increasingly clear differentiation: the VN-Index rising does not mean every stock rises. To generate outperformance, investors need to focus on business quality, cash-flow generation and intrinsic value instead of merely chasing the movement of the index.

The paradox of “the VN-Index rises but many investors have no profit” is therefore not a sign of weakness, but shows that the way to make money in the market is changing. As cash flow becomes increasingly selective, the advantage will belong to investors who have a method and the ability to correctly assess business value.

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Source: TheLeader — theleader.vn. This article is republished to share knowledge with the community of founders and investors in the HCM VIF ecosystem.